Friday 2/14/14 Market Update

The primary wave count is now a completing wave [4] correction still underway.  The change is due to the small correction seen Wednesday-Thursday then impulse wave higher following.  The market has shown great strength during the rebound since 2/5/14, but momentum appears to be waning.  If a 3rd wave is underway within [5] as alternate' suggests, the market will need to continue rising for weeks more without any notable pullback and this seems unlikely.

Wave [4] should be a triangle or flat correction.  If it is a triangle, prices do not need to reach the last all-time high.  If it is a flat, prices should get closer to the last all-time high.

The correction on Wednesday-Thursday was large enough to suggest that an impulse wave higher terminated on Wednesday.  The core of the wave higher that began on Wednesday appears to have been Friday morning with the primary wave count and "or" wave count describing it well.  The wave looks poised to stop at the last all-time high if it did not complete already.

Wednesday 2/12/14 Market Update

There is no change to the wave count from the last update.  The waves today look corrective and suggest more upside to come.  The action is a bit wide, but a continuation higher seems most likely given the action today and other possible wave counts for the rally higher since 2/5.

A flat higher as alternate' depicts is possible, but this pattern is a bit odd looking.  A complete impulse higher since 2/5 also does not look complete.

There can be a zigzag higher underway since 2/5, but [4] already looks sufficient in size relative to [2].  These corrections also alternate between sideways and sharp corrections which is typical.

Friday 2/7/14 Market Update

The wave count from the last update remains unchanged.  The rally that began this week should continue until the last all-time high is tested and then probably exceeded.  This move will almost certainly conclude the move higher that began 10/4/11.  After that impulse wave concludes, the market should begin selling off to a level that will be at least proportional to the large 7/7/11-10/4/11 decline.  The alternate wave count in the chart above is not a bad option and it will not be clear which option, the primary or alternate, is correct until the market sells-off in earnest.

The bearish scenario at this time is a termination of the multi-year impulse higher realized at the last recovery high followed by an impulse down, then a flat higher as alternate' depicts.  The 'b' wave of the flat is very large in relation to 'a' however which is not typical in a flat (or a second wave).

The short-term waves also do not work well with alternate' (or alternate'') as an impulse wave higher since the Wednesday low is not the choice that comes most natural; there is not good balance to this wave.  [5] seems to be moving higher in a simple fashion (as waves tend to do) without much subdivision where its core has not yet been seen.