Wednesday 4/2/14 Market Update

In the long-term, the options remain unchanged from the last update.

The market has broken out to new all-time highs, rather than pulling back at 1885, which is a signal that the long, wide correction lasting weeks has ended.  Because of this development and the complexity required for a correction to still be underway, alternate'' is not a strong option.

The very shallow correction seen since Feburary can be a second wave, but a sideways correction like this is not typical of second waves.  The market will need to put on an amazing show of strength over the next few weeks if a third wave is underway, particularity because the bull market is so mature.

The problems with the alternate counts above make the primary wave count stand out by a good margin.

There are many ways to describe the movement higher since 3/27, but the best symmetry to the move so far is as labeled above.

Note: There is a jobs report at 8:30am EST on Friday.  These create volatility and can be catalysts for large moves.

Friday 3/28/14 Market Update

The market still appears to be drawing out an impulse wave higher since the 2011 low.  It should be at least a couple of months until completes.

There is clearly so far only a 3-wave advance higher since 2/5.  There is a very high probability of new all-time highs coming in the near future with the structure over the last month suggesting this will will be seen within the next few weeks.  A breakout is expected after a triangle X wave (primary) or flat X wave (alternate'') completes.  These are both good options with a more complex X wave underway also possible as a reasonable option.  The breakout will probably only be brief as a double zigzag higher since 2/5 seems to be developing.

An impulsive option is possible (alternate'), but its second wave correction seems a bit strange.  A complete double zigzag since 2/5 is also possible and perhaps better (alternate'' 3), but the 'b' waves between its zigzag legs seem out of proportion.  Even if this option is correct, there is still most likely a wave [4] sideways correction underway since the January high which is a bullish wave structure.

The bounce following either of the Thursday lows is best counted as a zigzag.  So if one of the upper resistance levels in the 1-minute chart above is tested, a deep pullback should ensue.  If prices move under the ~1835 support level this week, alternate'' 3 will become the best option.

Wednesday 3/26/14 Market Update

In the long-term, the message remains unchanged from the last update: an impulse wave higher that began in 2011 looks incomplete given the 3-wave nature of the rally since 2/5/14.

While not invalidated, an impulse higher since 2/5 is now a mediocre option (alternate').  The better choice is alternate''.  It suggests a considerable amount of (B) remaining with a triangle wave X marking the middle.  The primary wave count is also a completing double zigzag higher since 2/5, but one in a later stage than alternate''.  A double zigzag higher can be complete (alternate'' 2), but there is poor proportionality between the [b] waves with Y looking a bit small and nearly truncated.

Some other variation of alternate'' can be underway with the triangle X substituted with a complex flat.  This would allow 1840 to be reached and still give a bullish picture in the short-term, but this option seems amazingly complex and not a natural choice.  There could also still be 5 waves down for 'c' of a flat developing since the 3/21 high, but this would not give good balance to any potential flat so it is a weak option.  In other words, if ~1850 does not hold as support, it is likely that alternate'' 2 is correct.

The sell-off from today's high appears to be an impulse about complete.  ~1850 support should hold tomorrow.