Wednesday 5/22/13 Market Update

There is no change to the wave count since the last update.  Although wave [v] is one of the worst impulse waves of its size that you will ever see in the S&P 500, the sell-off following the day's highs was definitive and big enough to look like something more than a small corrective wave like the ones seen since the April low.

There are some other ways to count 5, but it looks more complete than not.  If it is incomplete, then the strong wave down today is probably a complete zigzag wave [iv] where the core of the post-April low impulse is 5/14.

Wave 5 is quite long now, but it still works best as a 5th wave given the larger structure preceding it.

Friday 5/17/13 Market Update

A stated in the comments on Wednesday, the wave count since the April low is now an impulse wave (the alternate count from the last update).  A sideways wave (4) correction back down to 1600 is the best estimate of future action after (3) completes.

The gap higher in early May following the morning employment report looks like the core of the impulse wave since April.  There is nice balance and symmetry to this wave, so upside should be limited.

Higher prices in the short term look almost certain.  The impulse wave higher following the Thursday low would terminate at 1675 will good symmetry.

Tuesday 5/14/13 Market Update

There is some change to the very short term count of (b) since the last update, but this is a very minor change.  Partly due to Monday's waves, (b) works best as a triangle.  This means (c) has terminated or will do so very soon.  If the alternate' count is correct, there can be some additional action higher, but alternate' waves [1] and [2] of iii look odd making the count questionable.

If there is not a double zigzag wave B higher unfolding, one pullback and final impulse higher should terminate an impulse wave that began at the April low.  That option would probably take several weeks to unfold.

The alternate count has been reformulated a bit, but there are some significant problems with the small waves around the alternate wave 1 and 2 area.