Monday, June 22, 2009

Friday 6/19/09-Monday 6/22/09 1m Chart

The market gaped down confirming the count (the labeling degree was changed but the count remains the same). We appear to be completing wave [v] from the recent correction top. The structure off of this correction has not been as dramatic as the wave off the 956.23 highs thus it appears that this is a C wave, not wave 3. This implies that primary wave 2 is not over and will continue for some time to come.

In addition this market is looking too oversold to really be starting primary wave 3. We are also encountering some resistance around 880s so that should provide a bottom. If it does, then this is a good sign that this was only a correction.

Some approximate targets are shown for the end of [v] and C; white is the length of A (100%, not shown, extends to ~874.72), green is the length of [iii], blue is the length of [i], and purple is the length of [i] through [iii]. A channel is also drawn.

Something to start thinking about is the possible larger structure that C is a part of, e.g. a triangle, flat, double zigzag, etc. We should bottom tomorrow and start to bounce but how high it takes us in not known.

[iv] was a sharp correction just as [ii] was; there is no alternation.

Wave [iv] is not over.

The end of [v] is actually [i], just part of a larger 3rd wave.

This is the 3rd wave, and 5 will be smaller than 3.

Again the labellings could be too large by one degree, perhaps only [c] is being completed, not C.

There was an ending diagonal wave [v] at the close or a leading diagonal for a first wave. However the ending diagonal looks too small in comparison to the other waves. It looks more like a setup for a gap down tomorrow. Then again wave [v] is 61.8% of wave [i] at the close.

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