The market had a strong rally today after bouncing off of the 200 day moving average early in the morning. The zigzag idea off the 956.23 top is the primary count once again; the market needed to break down confirming a 3rd wave but it did not. This count implies that we are sill in primary wave 2 with more upside to come. Volume was lower again today, about the same level as yesterday.
There are various counts for the action shown but this count shows a WXY double zigzag scenario in which the X wave with its own double zigzag is still being completed. Yet another count is shown for Tuesday's structure to come to this. The double zigzag, should it be completed, could be a part of a larger correction (triangle, flat, etc.). The same goes for a single zigzag obviously.
It appears that we finished a 5 wave impulse up and are poised to move higher; the market did not impulse down off the highs today, but gave us a 3 wave correction. Following that it nearly hit another high. This action near the close may be a flat after an impulse down but the retracement was extremely deep and the pattern looks too wide. The pullback did not hit a 38.2% retracement but did cover the territory of the iv wave of (a).
If we get that final impulse, I would expect it to stop right around 927, there is resistance there. Here (c) would be 50% of (a). At 930, there would be a 61.8% retracement from the 956.23 high and [w] would be about 61.8% of [y]. A move beyond these numbers would indicate some other pattern is taking place.
As a reminder we will be crossing a triangle apex tomorrow and I stated earlier (http://natesmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/monday-61509-15m-chart.html). It may amount to nothing but is something to consider especially if the waves continue to be confusing as they have been.
Finally I would like to thank all of the viewers who have become followers of my blog!
Problems:
Still hard to make anything out of Tuesday and Wednesday market action. The waves look corrective however with many zigzags at Tuesday's close.
Alternatives:
Many things. A single completed zigzag or flat off of W.
The correction is over and we are starting Y or a "3rd of a 3rd" down tomorrow.
The pullback at the close was a 4th wave in a larger impulse.
The zigzag completed at 888.86 but we are impulsing up off of it. We would have a "3rd of a 3rd" tomorrow.
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