Sunday, June 28, 2009

Wednesday 4/1/09- Friday 6/26/09 30m Chart

If X really did top Friday 6/26/09 then it is important to think about where Y will end.

Some Fibonacci relationship targets are shown:
Blue: W from the end of X.
Pink: W from the end of W.
Green: X from end of X.
Yellow: X from end of W.

Areas with clusters of targets (especially "nice" 38.2%, 61.8%, 100%, ... targets) are areas with the best chances of Y ending. Subwaves of W can X can also be used for creating targets but that is left to the reader.

Some clear resistance levels and trend lines are also shown. After breaking these trend lines, 888.86 resistance should be broken but by how much is uncertain. Resistance levels and Fibonacci targets together can assist in locating the endpoint however.

For example there is a clear resistance area around 880 and this is also 61.8% of W from the end of X. This area may provide a bottom; if not, the market may continue down and challenge other levels. Obviously 855 provides W and Y equality so this is a nice target. It is also in an area of resistance as many other Fibonacci targets are.

Also keep in mind that W happened swiftly and with determination so W may do just the opposite by the rule of alternation. For this reason Y may not reach 100% of W.

So why the confidence in a double zigzag? X is already a double zigzag and did not reach high enough to be a flat or triangle. The pattern may not have completed but look at the apex of the triangle correlating with the 922.00 high almost perfectly! Even if it does rise more, it is doubtful that [y] will tower beyond [w]. X could turn into a triple zigzag but this is rare. There is a chance that X is only finishing its first leg (and is a flat or a triangle) but that pattern would be wide for what it is.

Note that the degree labellings may be off but the idea is exactly the same.

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