Thursday, June 18, 2009

Wednesday 6/17/09-Thursday 6/18/09 1m Chart

The corrective bounce still happened today as I expected but the pattern looks more like a double zigzag rather than a single zigzag. This was apparent when a triangle (b) wave formed dividing [y]. The breakout impulse was about equal to the widest part of the triangle. Notice the apex of the triangle hitting that 921.48 top nicely.

We crossed into the territory of wave [iv] today but not by much. There has not been the sizable retracement that you would expect for a 2nd wave, not even 38.2%. So far the bounce has been quite weak giving doubts of [v] being an ending diagonal. However it probably does not matter; for one thing its (i) and (iv) waves missed crossing by 0.02, giving a possible reinterpretation as an impulse.

It is unclear whether or not the correction is over. Perhaps there will be a [z] wave to complete a triple zigzag but this is rare. Note that the waves following the [y] top do not look impulsive, however the "look" of waves can be deceiving as we have seen over the past few days. The market could also be setting up for a "3rd of a 3rd" gap down tomorrow.

Also on a larger scale we also need more information to determine the market's overall intention. The most likely options are marked by the blue minor waves (the degree may be too large by one but that can be easily changed later). In either case we seem destined to have a C or 3 down wave coming where its ending point will be telling in the overall structure.

The [w] wave looks bad but may look just as bad as an impulse.

Weakness of the bounce.

A single zigzag so far off of [v] however [y] does not look impulsive.

The whole pattern is forming the first wave of a flat in which case the correction will last for days more.

Some other creative correction that is still being developed.

The blue minor wave 1 or A was actually a double zigzag down making this not a correction but a new wave up in primary wave 2. So far it does not look impulsive.

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