Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Friday 7/10/09-Tuesday 7/14/09 1m Chart

The market did not present any surprises today; there was a 4th wave pullback, iv, a consolidation before wave v higher. This was a valid option discussed yesterday. iv was a contracting ascending triangle, it looks like [E] failed to hit the [A][C] line. This wedge pattern is bullish in technical analysis and the [B][D] line was already broken near the close.

Tomorrow the market should complete wave v with limited upside considering the size of i and the large size of this wave already. I still believe this the last wave of a correction. It now looks like wave (c) of a single zigzag because this wave is forming 5 waves since the 10th. It would be (c) of [b] of Y although the count for [a] could be a zigzag (the most natural count) making this (c) of [b] of Z of a rare triple zigzag.

The alternative would be an impulsive structure as discussed yesterday. In any case after the 5 wave v wave tomorrow there will be a sell-off. Watch closely to see if the territory of the iv wave holds. Although 887.86 would be the peak of wave 1, the market should not go much below the 895 area for the bullish scenario to be legitimate. If this area is respected, Y completed and the market will continue to be bullish. If the market blows through support and crosses waves the market should sell down well into the 800s breaking 870 support and the head and shoulders neckline again.

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