Thursday, July 30, 2009

Wednesday 7/29/09-Thursday 7/20/09 1m Chart

The market made a large advance today in the morning hours. Wave [iv], completed by an ending diagonal, provided the base for the advance. Near the close, selling pressure came into the market taking a significant piece of the advance away and is a serious crack in the rally. In fact wave [v] appears to have been completed today as the above chart expresses. This marks the end of wave A.

Impulsive waves are clearly seen in wave iii of (iii), the "point of recognition" of wave [i]. 'c' waves are typically not as strong as 'a' waves in zigzags so it is not likely that the market is correcting here within a larger A wave. It is difficult to fit another large correction into wave A especially with the marked [iv] wave already being so large. [ii], (ii), etc. are already smaller than [iv] be a wide margin.

Note that the B wave can be any correction as long as it does not exceed the lowest point of A (the ABC that is underway is a zigzag). A 38.2% retracement of A is around 948 which is still a long way down. This target will probably be reached somehow but may be exceeded by a good amount. The correction should take at least one week to complete because of the size of A. Also as mentioned above, 'c' waves in zigzags are usually not as sharp as 'a' waves so 1000 should eventually be exceeded but may not be broken my much. Targets for C will be discussed later when B is reaching an end.

i of (iii) was heavily retraced and looks a bit strange. Perhaps it is part of (ii), but (ii) looks complex enough and wide enough already.

Degree labellings beyond wave A may be off.

Some other impulsive count by changing some degrees but maintaining the structure, e.g. the 3rd wave is just beginning.

The above suggestions.

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