Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Tuesday 7/7/09-Wednesday 7/8/09 1m Chart

The market sold lower then rebounded off of support with higher volume today. There was overlap (the (i) and ii waves) so for a moment it seemed as if the expanding flat scenario was going to play out. This did not occur; instead (iii) completed and probably (iv) as well.

Waves have been retracing deeply. This, the high level of (iii), and the close above 878 gives doubts about the 825 head and shoulders target being hit. (iv) retraced so deeply that (v) may not end much below 870 unless it extends. But if it does and ends up being the length of (iii), it would conclude around 859 which is far from the head and shoulders target. 864 is the equality target of W and Y and is more likely. 853 is [a] and [c] of Y equality, 863 puts [c] at 78.6% of [a], and the low today was just under 61.8% of [a].

So tomorrow I would expect (v) to be just below (iii)'s low, perhaps it will even be truncated, with the market probably closing above above 878 again. [c] and Y appear to be concluding soon with the next intermediate move breaking upward through 956.23.

[c] is really wave (i) of [c] or in some other way the WXY pattern is larger than it appears.

[a] was some other impulse of a larger [a] structure. This would help support the 825 head and shoulders target idea.

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