Friday, August 14, 2009

Monday 7/13/09-Friday 7/20/09 15m September Mini Silver Chart

This chart is a follow-up to an earlier silver posting I posted last month. The count discussed there is still very much valid.

Although the retracement of wave (1) was substantial, (1) was a clear 5-wave structure which occurred after a market high. In addition, the upward waves that occurred before that high do not look like the start of a new bull market in silver, but a zigzag correction within an established bear market. With some work, (2) can be viewed as an impulse, but the bullish sentiment of this metal remains very high. The count of (2) shown is not great looking, but seems most probable given the market action since (1).

There has been clear divergence between the gold and silver markets. Silver exceeded its 8/6/09 high on 8/13/09. Gold actually topped around 974 on 8/6/09 with the following wave peak reaching 963 on 8/13/09. That was almost exactly a 61.8% retracement of the decline since 8/6/09. So a lower high has been seen in gold. A lower low will occur when the low 940s are breached and that should not be far off given the strong downside momentum seen today.

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