Monday, August 31, 2009

Thursday 8/27/09-Monday 8/31/09 1m Intraday Chart

The market opened lower in what appears to have been a 3rd wave. The lower limit of [iv] was broken invalidating the ending diagonal scenario and a number of other bullish counts that suggested [v] was still forming while suggesting 1016.2 was the bottom of [iv]. [iv] was already complex and wide, so it is unlikely that [iv] is still forming. It is also possible that only wave [i] of C of (Y) of [2] topped, not [v], but this also appears unlikely. Other scenarios exist but it is safe to say that [2] has topped.

This conclusion is unsatisfying on a small scale as the count suggests. Not only is there no clear impulse moving up, there is no clear impulse just after the peak. Yet on a larger scale the count is satisfying as Kenny points out, notice the break out of the channel. A possible count is shown in the chart above but it is only a guess. Hopefully it can be improved upon.

At the moment it appears that wave iv is underway or has just completed. I would expect a triangle, flat, or a double to unfold for at least most of the remaining day, but it is possible iv already completed. Given the clear zigzag up from the bottom, this appears to be a consolidation phase before another move down. Note that the marked i wave is actually longer than wave iii, so v does have a limit (so iii is not the shortest wave, a rule violation).

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