Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Wednesday 8/19/09 Market Update

The market moved higher today but volume remained weak. I agree with Kenny's count and the structure possibilities he presents on a larger scale. These are ideas I mentioned yesterday as well.

Looking at Kenny's chart, notice the wave area around wave ii of (c) today, it is a possible triangle but is marked as a running flat. Given the extensive market action after this area, a triangle here would imply the action today contained at least part of wave (w) of [x]; (w) would be a zigzag. Because the marked ii wave running flat is rare (especially in the 2nd wave position), a triangle may have occurred. This works especially nice on the Dow 30 as the above chart shows. Unfortunately the structure of Kenny's marked (a) wave is not clear either.

Wave a would be about 61.8% of wave c. But after the possible (w) wave top, it is very difficult to make out a clean impulse down although an attempt is made. From a distance, it looks like 5 waves down but the 3rd would be unusually choppy. The bounce following that is also choppy but may winding up to form a larger impulse. However if [x] did top, then the price action near the close is probably a double zigzag near completion.

If the market breaks above the high set today, the market is following one of the bullish counts Kenny's chart shows. If the market breaks down, [x] probably topped. Tomorrow should be telling but will probably not satisfy all curiosities.

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