Sunday, September 20, 2009

Thursday 9/17/09-Friday 9/18/09 1m Chart

The market has been trading sideways but has not exceeded the 1074.77 peak reached 9/17/09. That also is true on the Dow 30 and NASDAQ. Volume was surprisingly high but options expiration day (OPEX) may have had something to do with it.

These prices have been almost undoubtedly a correction but the question is in what direction? There is certainly a good argument for a wave 2 zigzag pattern (as shown), but this may also be a part of wave [iv] of C of (Y) of [2], a consolidation for one final move higher. But for this to be the case, I would expect Thursday's low to be broken (to complete a zigzag pattern) or for sideways prices to persist (to complete a triangle). But assuming the corrective pattern ends soon, the beginning of C probably occurred 9/3/09 for sake of proportionality. If C began 8/17/09 or 8/19/09, wave [ii] would be about a 45 point correction that took about 4 days to complete, so wave [iv] would need to be much larger than the 10-15 point drop over the course of 2 days that is shown here.

So given the options, I would expect lower prices tomorrow with a potential short term bottom occurring then.

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