Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tuesday 9/29/09 Market Update

The market moved higher today as expected reaching almost 1070 but with volume only slightly higher than yesterday's low reading. A 1 minute 3 day chart is shown above.

Because the correction that seems to have begun today appears to be only partially complete (there are still no impulse waves down from the top, choppy waves persist) and is surprisingly wide for a second wave, the alternate and primary counts were reversed again. Honestly nobody knows which count is correct using Elliott Wave Theory alone. There are pros and cons for each count looking at previous prices. But a weak (c) wave will be required if primary wave [2] really did top 9/23/09; 1080.15 cannot be exceeded. Also this wave needs to complete very soon, tomorrow is preferable. But when 1039.47 is broken, it will be almost certain that [2] did top.

Finally note that the Dow Transports continue to show weakness. A 30 minute 30 day chart is shown above with the Dow Transports in blue and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in red/white. The chart shows Dow non-confirmation present several weeks ago, it is a very similar bearish signal as that seen in late August. Waves also crossed on the Dow Transports.

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