Thursday, September 24, 2009

Wednesday 9/23/09-Thursday 9/24/09 1m Chart

The market continued lower today then traded sideways for the remainder of trading. Either [2] or [iii] of C of (Y) of [2] topped at 1080.15; I favor the former. If the latter is correct, wave (c) of [iv] is completing a flat as discussed in earlier posts. Note that crossing 1039.47 invalidates this count.

In my estimation, some sort of iv wave has completed or is nearing completion. A sideways correction is typical for 4th waves. Based on this and and some other indicators (e.g. the nice channel yesterday, the sharpness of declining waves following it), we arrive at the above count and alternatives.

If this count is correct, wave i is slightly longer than iii. This does not break any rules, but it does put a limit on v. So I would expect somewhat lower prices tomorrow (below 1045), then a bounce and setup for a "3rd of a 3rd" wave late Friday for a gap down Monday morning. This view can change in a moment, but this is what appears most likely using the most likely count.

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