Monday, October 5, 2009

Monday 10/5/09 Market Update

On lower volume, the market moved higher which was not unexpected. Prices are touching important resistance levels that I believe will stop the rally that began Friday 10/2/09. In my estimation, prices will jump slightly higher tomorrow then break down short of the 1050s. A 5 minute chart covering the last 9 days is shown.

Because of the large retracement of the preceding impulse wave since 9/30/09, the primary count has changed. A wave ii of (iii) zigzag correction appears to be in its late stages with a "3rd of a 3rd" wave ahead that should take prices below 1000 for the first time since 9/3/09. A wave (iv) alternate is shown, but prices are moving very close to crossing wave (i)'s lowest extreme. If this happens, this alternate count is invalidated.

Another alternate is an (XX) of [2] wave that may be complete or partially complete (if the correction is more than just a simple single zigzag wave). But as mentioned earlier, a triple zigzag is a rare pattern. Also waves have been very choppy the past two days and are not showing impulsive characteristics. I do not think this pattern is playing out.

blog comments powered by Disqus