Sunday, November 22, 2009

Friday 11/20/09 Market Update

Thank you all for your kind comments. I believe the worst is over now.

Above is a 1 minute chart of the S&P 500 covering last week's market action. It is possible that wave [2] has topped. If this is so, the most likely count is shown above. It has some major issues though. The best count calls for a leading diagonal (i) wave and ending diagonal (v) wave but I cannot remember any examples of this occurring. So perhaps wave (iv) is still completing. Also note the gap down Thursday 11/19 morning. Impulses within larger bear markets usually do not take this form. There are usually subwaves leading them off before a gap down.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average paints a different picture. A 1 minute chart is shown above. An impulse wave can be seen here as well and looks to be one of better form. Also notice the choppy waves since the Thursday 11/19 lows; a correction appears to be underway.

If wave [2] did not complete, look for a continued wave B of (Z) of [2] correction. But in any case, I expect some sort of a rally for at least some part of tomorrow. That looks like an impulse wave since the lows.

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