Monday, December 14, 2009

Monday 12/14/09 Market Update

A 1 minute chart of the S&P is above. There was a gap higher today which appears to have been wave iii of (iii) of [i] of C of (Z) of [2]. This possibility was suggested yesterday. Some strange upward zigzag looking waves followed the pullback after the gap. I cannot find a contracting ending diagonal pattern here, nor a 5 wave count. Since wave v of (v) looks incomplete, the upward drifting waves that followed into the close do make some sense. The best count I can think of is an ending diagonal v wave that is completing its [3] wave now. Given the resistance around 1115 and the waning momentum of the market, a wave [i] top should be coming very soon, probably tomorrow. If [i] already topped, expect lower waves in the morning hours breaking support levels set today. This pattern is my alternate because the bounce after today's peak has been very wide and has retraced more than 78.6% of the previous wave down.

Above is a15 minute chart of the S&P 500. Most of [y] has now been been retraced which increases the probability that a downward correction has indeed ended. But for now the current resistance level should should provide a temporary hold to the rally.

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