Thursday, December 31, 2009

Thursday 12/31/09 Market Update

Because of the lower prices seen today, the triangle identified yesterday appears to have been part of a corrective 'x' wave, not the following 'y' wave. Labellings have been adjusted in the 1 minute chart above to reflect this. Also notice that the degree labellings have been lessened by one degree due to the hard sell-off and wave crossing seen at the end of the day today.

Even with the weakness present, the sell-off since 12/29 does look corrective. Unless there is an unusual long series of 1-2 waves (of larger 1-2-3-4-5 impulses) winding up for a larger decline, there is almost no chance that [3] is underway. A [2] top on 12/29 is possible however if the larger count is adjusted slightly--the B of (Z) of [2] wave would need to be relabeled.

A 15 minute chart is above. Wave [iii] appears to be underway after all. I think a satisfying double zigzag down has completed or will do so early in the morning on Monday.

Obviously if (iii) of [iii] is still ahead, prices will move higher and the rally should continue for weeks more. The end of 2009 or the start of 2010 seems like good place for a market top but the smaller wave structure is not indicating that this will take place. A continued rally does not change the overall view of the market, that this is still a corrective rally since March 2009; it will actually help confirm it because bullish sentiment will rise in an already bullish market.

A 1 day chart is shown above. The lower channel line has not been broken.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks weaker than the S&P 500.

blog comments powered by Disqus