Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Tuesday 12/22/09 Market Update

The ~1120 wave target was reached in the morning hours. Wave (i) of [iii] of C of (Z) of [2] may have completed today as the above 1 minute chart shows. But the sideways waves following the peak today are typical of 4th waves. In any case, (i) is clearly nearing completion.

A 15 minute chart is above. A channel can be drawn that contains the current wave C price action. Touching the top of this channel today, prices reached a new primary wave [2] high on the S&P 500. This was not confirmed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

An ending diagonal C wave completing wave [iii] is a possibility. But remember that ending diagonals are 3-3-3-3-3 patterns, so wave [iii] will need to show zigzag characteristics and should be shorter than wave [i]. I do not think this is a likely option. Somewhat better would be a zigzag [i] wave nearing completion.

It is also possible C ended is B completed 12/18. Again, there is not a good chance of this having occurred.

A better alternative is the continuation of B, where its [xx] wave or some other corrective wave is topping soon. B would be getting quite wide though.

Finally a linear daily bar chart is shown above. The same targets are valid. Breaking beneath the channel line shown is a bearish sign. The same idea holds on a logarithmic scale. Higher prices should be obtained, eventually. 50% retracement of primary wave [1] will be reached at 1128.42.

I do not plan on posting any further updates until after Christmas. The normal posting schedule will be reestablished on Wednesday 12/30 but there may be a few brief postings before that time. I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday season!

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