Monday, January 11, 2010

Monday 1/11/10 Market Update

There was a gap up today but it was quickly retraced by the ensuing decline. This decline had a choppiness to it so it may only be a correction. It can also be viewed as a leading diagonal or 1st wave down followed by waves 'a' and 'b' of a wide expanding flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marched higher at the end of the day and actually exceeded its previous highs of the day.

The 1 minute chart above illustrates what a top may look like. A completed top is far from certain though. Prices did not break down hard from the high which is expected following a completed ending diagonal, especially one that is contained within a larger ending diagonal. On the other hand, it seems certain that an ending diagonal is completing given the numerous zigzag waves leading the market higher and the unlikelihood of a 'b' wave of a flat unfolding at these levels. But on a small scale wedging will be lost if prices continue higher. Wedging is probably a requirement for ending diagonals (in the book "Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior", an argument is laid out for expanding ending diagonals however). If it is not a requirement, this opens the door to all sorts of wave counts that may describe the current price action. I am also operating under the assumption that waves 1 and 4 should cross. If this is not the case, again there are many options.

If prices continue drifting higher I will not be surprised. The same holds true for a pullback crossing below the above trend line. The reason is that corrections are choppy and unpredictable. But going back to the basics, there are overlapping waves and wedging on a larger scale as is evident in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. See the 15 minute chart below.

This is a bearish pattern. I see no way expressing this price action in an impulsive fashion.

It should be interesting and/or frustrating to see what unfolds the next few days.

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