Thursday, February 25, 2010

Thursday 2/25/10 Market Update

The intention of the market remains uncertain after today's price action. The 1 minute chart above suggests a wave [ii] top followed by initial waves within wave (i) of [iii] as well as an alternate in which wave iv of (c) of [ii] bottomed today. Because wave iv and wave (c) of [ii] would be getting quite wide and complex if [ii] has not completed, in my estimation wave [ii] already topped. But because of the massive retracement of the gap down today, it could go either way. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a less powerful rally, about 69% of the decline that began yesterday was retraced.

A 10 minute chart is above.

Other less desirable alternates include a rare possibly completed downward expanding leading diagonal 1st wave from this week's top and a completing impulse wave higher that began 2/5 (perhaps a large 'c' wave of a second wave flat). The 'c' wave of a second wave flat higher that began 2/23 may also be completing tomorrow but this seems unlikely as well.

All counts seem unlikely to some degree. In any case, the rally seen today should be followed by a pullback shortly after trading begins tomorrow. Today's gap may be filled first however. Whether this pullback develops into a more bearish picture should be determined tomorrow.

One final chart is below.

The next post will be Sunday evening.

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