Monday, March 22, 2010

Monday 3/22/10 Market Update

There was a gap down at the open today, but it was immediately followed by a rally that approached new highs. See the 1 minute chart above. As discussed in yesterday's post, a gap down today is a sign that the initial decline is actually part of a larger corrective wave. Given this, the size of the initial drop, Friday's impulse down, and then Friday's sideways wave structure, there was good reason to believe that a rebounding b of (iv) wave would follow. A wave within [B] of a of (iv) was also an option although not as likely. Zigzag-like corrective waves higher did unfold. In my estimation, the rebound higher is best seen as the 'b' wave of a flat or triangle within wave (iv) that may or may not surpass the high reached by wave (iii). There are still many options, but a flat, triangle, or double wave (iv) seem likely. These are all sideways corrections that should take days more to complete.

A larger view of the rally that began in early February is above.

One final chart is shown in the linear candlestick chart above. As stated before, this count is questionable. Dan posted an interesting option today that I did not notice until now. The size of the correction that appears to be unfolding now will help us determine whether or not this is the correct count. In any case, wave [2] is a correction and remains unpredictable.

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