Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Tuesday 3/9/10 Market Update

Although the very short term picture was confirmed today, the count has been modified as shown above in the linear daily bar chart. Another view is below.

It is actually possible to label an impulse from 9/2/09 to 1/19/10 with no 1-4 overlap. This has been labeled wave A of (Z) above. After looking at some old charts, wave [v] of A can actually be viewed as an ending diagonal that basically fits within channel lines. Waves (i) and (iv) did not cross, but only missed by 1.01 points. I do not believe these waves are required to cross. The waves within [v] are zigzag looking formations with (v) smaller than (iii) smaller than (i).

Wave A is not a textbook looking impulse, but has good Fibonacci relationships between its waves. In addition B of (Z) retraced about 61.8% of A with the following C wave reaching other targets. The former arrangement also had a number of price and time relationships (some with primary wave [1]), but it does not seem likely that a decline beginning 1/19 was retraced to this extent.

Waves [ii] and [iv] of A are also nicely proportioned with this count. The same seems true of those waves within C.

The above chart reflects the changes in count. The decline since 1/19 looks far better as a zigzag in my opinion. On the other hand, the ensuing rally does not count well as an impulse. This has been the theme of primary wave [2] however and is somewhat expected within an correction.

Note the wave (v) of [v] of C of (Z) of [2] extension labeled above.

Wave v of (v) also appears to be extended. 5th wave extensions are quickly retraced. The count also suggests C of (Z) of [2] has truncated. The combination of these phenomenon should be the recipe for a dramatic drop in prices the coming days. If prices hold and consolidate, wave C is probably not yet complete. Even if the count presented in previous posts such as yesterday's is correct, a decline should be coming. The action near the close today suggests this time is upon us.

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