Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Wednesday 4/7/10 Market Update

Waves iv and v of (v) appear to have completed yesterday. See the 1 minute chart above. This was the alternate suggested in yesterday's post. The price target (~1195) and time target (midday Tuesday, 4/6) suggested after wave (iv)'s completion work very well with this count.

The sell-off that ensued after yesterday's high was probably a zigzag. The rally that began 45 minutes before the close nearly overlapped the marked a wave above. 4th waves are typically not this strong. A "3rd of a 3rd" wave lower is possible, but the market is not in a good position to collapse given the structure seen today. This also does not work well with the larger count. If the zigzag down is not part of a larger wave [iv] correction (the primary count above), it may be wave ii of (v) of [iii].

The chart above highlights the larger count. It remains unchanged with the exception that [iii] likely topped yesterday as discussed above. It is possible an impulse higher since 2/5 has completed, but the structure still looks incomplete. A final 4th wave correction, wave [iv], is likely underway.

Wave [iv] should be a sharp correction since wave [ii] was a sideways correction. Alternation is not a rule, but a guideline. The structure of a completing wave [iv] is far from certain. A double zigzag, triangle, flat, or double are all possibilities at this point.

Note that if an impulse since 2/5 has completed, wave A of (Z) of [2] has completed. If an impulse has completed and this count is correct, primary wave [2] has completed.

The larger count remains unchanged.

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