Sunday, May 2, 2010

Friday 4/30/10 Market Update

There was a sell-off Friday that retraced most (more than 78.6%) of the rally since 4/28. Because of this, it appears that wave B is not yet complete. A flat 4/15-4/28 looks clear, so this has been labeled wave [w] of B. A view of this count is shown in the chart above.

A new count of the rally since 4/28 has been labeled as wave [x]. More importantly, notice the relatively choppy, corrective nature of the decline since 4/29; it can easily be counted as a double zigzag correction. A double zigzag cannot alone form a 'w' wave; it can only be the first leg (wave 'a') of a larger corrective wave, or the only leg of a correction. In the context of the larger count, a double zigzag here can be, respectively, wave (a) of a flat or triangle wave [w], or wave (b) of an upward zigzag that began 4/28. So in the very short term, the path of least resistance should be higher.

The labeled flat wave [w] of B can also be wave [a] of a larger flat or triangle wave B. Similarly, wave [x] need not be complete. All these counts still work well within a completing sideways correction and fit within the larger context quite nicely.

The larger view remains unchanged.

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