Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Wednesday 5/12/10 Market Update

The count presented in Tuesday's update has not changed; wave [iv] of C of (Z) of [2] appears to be underway. A 1 minute chart above detailing the action since the 5/6 crash can be seen above. A likely scenario is a completing (b) wave of a flat or triangle wave [iv].

It is possible an ending diagonal higher has completed as suggested in the 1 minute chart above. However in the context of the larger count, this seems difficult to believe. The lower acceleration channel line of C has not yet been reached. Since the placement of a 5 wave advance at this stage is likely wave [v] of C, an ending diagonal does not make much sense. As long as the high 1140s/low 1150s act as support, the count will not change.

Some alternatives have been suggested above, however these are becoming more and more unlikely with each passing day of sideways to upward action. A completing wave C need not reach new highs however; this impulse wave since 5/6 is already winding down with wave [iv] likely underway. However consider this hypothetical scenario: if wave [iv] is a triangle that completes at 1165, wave [v] would reach 1220 if [v] is the same length as [i]. So a new high is possible.

The larger view remains unchanged. The 61.8% retracement of [1] is very close to the last recovery highs. Resistance at this level makes sense with the count expressed today.

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