Thursday, June 17, 2010

Thursday 6/17/10 Market Update

The market did not move above yesterday's highs, but did post a small gain. The count posted in yesterday's update has not been invalidated, but it now looks very unlikely.

The market appears to be in correction before another move higher. A flat or triangle appear to be the most likely. A sketch of a possible scenario is indicated above. If a flat wave [c] higher since 6/8 is unfolding as has been previously suggested, this must be a 4th wave within that impulse.

While a triple zigzag obviously does not work well with the larger count posted here yesterday, it counts very naturally. The leading alternate at the bottom of that chart is in play, although it seems quite strange.

Note that the wave with centered gap on 6/14 cannot be a "3rd of a 3rd" wave higher; the adjacent 1st and 5th waves are both longer than this wave. This makes it very difficult to find an impulse within these waves unless 6/15-6/17 was the "3rd of a 3rd" wave. This implies quite a wind down that should take prices well beyond 1120.

The Elliott Wave picture at this time is extremely disappointing and frustrating. Unfortunately technical analysis is the best tool we have at the moment. The 1120 area is resistance. If this level is broken, this is bullish. ~1150 is the next target following this level. This market does look overbought at the moment however, so a decline can be justified from a technical basis. Breadth and volume will probably remain low for the remainder of the advance.

The larger view remains the same, although there is now increased doubt within this picture. A correction since March 2009 completing or complete does appear likely however.

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