Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tuesday 6/29/10 Market Update

Since yesterday's update, the count has changed significantly. Today's strong gap down with good breadth appears to have been a "3rd of a 3rd" wave. This means it will be probably be a few weeks before wave [i] of 3 winds down in a series of 4th and 5th waves.

The ending diagonal suggested in yesterday's update no longer appears valid. It has been relabeled as 3-3-3-3-3 leading diagonal wave [1] within wave iii of (iii) of [i]. I have seen evidence of other 3-3-3-3-3 leading diagonals (as opposed to 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonals) in the past, so this appears to be a valid pattern. Wave [1] and the following sideways waves can be relabeled as an impulse down with a wide second wave double as well.

Wave [3] above counts very well as an impulse.

Wave [4] should begin at any moment if it has not done so already. A sideways correction lasting at least one full day is expected. A rally tomorrow into the (low-mid?) 1050s seems reasonable. [4] should not reach 1060.

The recent previous lows around 1040 have been broken. If a flat higher is still completing, a window has opened for a 'c' wave price reversal, but a count like this does not make sense in the larger context. More likely is an impulse lower unfolding that began 6/21 as discussed above. When this completes, it will be possible to label a zigzag lower within a larger bull market.

The larger view has not changed.

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