Thursday, August 26, 2010

Thursday 8/26/10 Market Update

The suspicion yesterday was a complete or nearly complete wave iv of (iii) of [i] of 3. Prices moved lower today following a small push higher in what appears to be first portion, almost half, of wave v. There will probably be a gap down tomorrow which should be the "point of recognition" gap of wave v. If there is no gap lower or strong selling, my next guess is an ending diagonal wave v unfolding.

Given the lines and targets above, the best estimate is a move into the upper 1020s before wave (iv) begins. That equates to a ~20 point loss in the S&P 500 before a bounce.

The coming bounce should be strong, at least initially, as wave a of (iv) likely begins. Wave (iv) should be a sideways correction (likely a flat or a triangle) by 'rule' of alternation. The upper 1050s to lower 1060s, at the highest, should provide resistance for that wave. It should take most of next week and possibly more before (iv) completes.

The ending diagonal wave [c] of 2 is almost completely retraced. Eventually prices should break under the 1010 area.

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