Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Tuesday 8/10/10 Market Update

The count within wave (v) has been modified somewhat since yesterday's update. Wave [C] of zigzag wave y of double zigzag wave (v) may be underway and even nearly complete, but short term action is not clear at this time. The count provided today is not a high probability.

Especially uncertain are the labellings for wave [C] due to the Fed statement at 2:15 EST today. There was a large move upward which looks looks like a 3rd wave of some degree, however the following 4th wave retraced more of the preceding 3rd than is typical for a 4th wave.

If wave (4) or (5) of [C] is underway, minor wave 2 should complete tomorrow.

Above is a 512 tick chart of the E-mini. Since the low today, prices channeled nicely in an advance with good wave 2 and 4 alternation. It is possible the 1108.25 to 1124.5 move was one impulse based on this analysis. A similar channeling is visible on a SPY tick chart as well.

The exact labellings for (v) are not clear, but the moves higher since 7/30 and early July look like corrective sets of waves.

The larger view has not changed.

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