Sunday, October 17, 2010

Friday 10/15/10 Market Update

There is little change since Thursday's Update; ending diagonal wave C of (Z) should be underway but wave [ii] is likely not complete.

The choppy action Friday does not look impulsive in either direction and lacks some symmetry. It will probably take some time tomorrow to conclude the sideways move before another leg down unfolds to complete [ii]. This will give a greater retracement of [i] which makes sense in the larger context.

If prices break and hold above 1181, this is a good sign that wave [iii] is underway.

The march higher continues, but in a very choppy fashion. The mid point of the move since 8/31 will look like sideways action if the move continues. This is a zigzag characteristic and will justify the count.

The massive retracement of the down move (especially of the Dow 30) since April gives good reason to believe the rally since March 2009 is not yet complete. Given the Fibonacci targets above and the characteristics of the current advance, the expectation is for a double top sometime in early November to complete the entire advance.

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