Monday, December 20, 2010

Monday 12/20/10 Market Update

It was stated in yesterday's update that a single zigzag higher since Thursday looked quite obvious. It was suggested that something more complex within a completing wave [v] ending diagonal, like a double zigzag wave (i), may actually be unfolding. With the higher open essentially invalidating the single zigzag, this is exactly what happened today.

The market action at this time still works quite well as a set of zigzag waves higher. The labellings above seem to be the most simple way of describing the upward action with the move best proportioned with waves [i] and [iii].

Since (i) was about 2 days in duration, the expectation is for a wave (iii) rally ending sometime tomorrow with (iii) taking less than 2 days to unfold. Wave (iii) must terminate under 1256.51 so it is shorter than (i). At the same time, wave (iii) will likely reach the upper white line.

While an upward double zigzag higher since Thursday is still a possibility, the proportionality with the rally since late November makes a completing 4th wave questionable.

The market is very overbought, but the move higher is continuing. A longer term view can be found here.

Note: There will be no updates from 12/23 through 12/28; I will be out of town.

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