Thursday, December 2, 2010

Thursday 12/2/10 Market Update

Since yesterday's update, the wave labellings following wave B have been increased by one degree due to the continued advance today and wave structure that suggests higher prices tomorrow.

Since the wave (iv) triangle yesterday, an extended wave (v) impulse higher should be complete finishing wave [iii]. Since waves [i] and [ii] were small, waves [iv] and [v] will likely also be. In other words, wave C may complete as soon as tomorrow. If there is a gap higher tomorrow, this should clearly be a wave within [v]. The employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am EST which may be an important turning point.

The corrective nature of the decline following 11/9 should be clear at this point.

Wave C, if it completes within the next few days, will be small compared to wave A. Keep in mind that the 61.8% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline is very close to being reached by this rally with significant resistance overhead.

The alternation between the intermediate degree zigzags above has also been mentioned here in that past. On a daily chart one impulse has shown clear subdivisions, the other has not. In other words the impulses of the zigzags do not resemble each other which is typical.

So with an impulse from the 11/30 low winding down, resistance at the last recovery high is a natural stopping place for it. With alternation of zigzag legs in mind and the 61.8% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline directly overhead, this impulse has a good chance of being wave C which will complete a triple zigzag (or single zigzag alternate) since the March 2009 low. Considering the short term structure, a top is due within the next few days, possibly tomorrow.

Note: I will be out of town next week. Following this update, the next regular update will be Sunday 12/12. I will do my best to provide some short text updates next week.

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