Monday, January 31, 2011

Monday 1/31/11 Market Update

The message in Friday's update has not changed; there is a reasonable chance that a top is in following at least the wave that began in late November. The short term count looks fairly bullish at this time however due to the choppy downside follow-through Friday, the wave structure of Friday's sell-off, and the impulsive climb today.

Reasons why the bearish view is favored at this time were laid out yesterday.

From a longer term perspective, there are a few ways to view the rally since July or August. No matter the view, the bearish picture seems to make the most sense, at least in the intermediate term. Of course the market needs to complete an impulse since late November to initiate the downside action.

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