Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Tuesday 1/4/11 Market Update

There has been a change to the labellings since yesterday's update. This is due to the continued decline following yesterday's high. Recent action suggests a top is already in given the short term wave structure. An alternate count (yesterday's count) is shown above, but note how waves ii and iv are very out of proportion.

An alternate count that will work with higher prices is possible, but the rally since late November is already quite extended. The current labeling works well with the structure and features of the rally.

The 61.8% retracement level of the 2007-2009 rally has been exceeded with a possible count labeled above that describes the entire rally since March 2009. From an Elliott Perspective, there is good reason to believe the bull rally is over.

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