Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Tuesday 2/15/11 Market Update

It was suggested in yesterday's update that the ending diagonal drawn above may actually be complete. The gap down today essentially confirmed this suspicion.

The decline from the high yesterday into the morning hours today resembles a zigzag and immediately suggests a correction. Since there was follow through lower (with a double bottom) following the morning zigzag pattern, it is possible a top was seen yesterday with one impulse lower and a flat or double correction higher following as the afternoon bounce. The action into the close however suggests higher prices tomorrow; there was an impulse off the afternoon low with substantial retracement of the afternoon decline. In addition the mid-day waves work best when labeled as shown above.

A complete double zigzag wave (iv) correction also works well with the count presented above days ago. It was mentioned yesterday that for an upcoming wave (iv), "look for it to be short in duration so it is proportional with (ii)". A small correction today is exactly what happened.

With a final wave (v) higher to perhaps complete tomorrow, wave [v] should be complete. If there is a non-impulsive move higher tomorrow, look for an ending diagonal wave (v) forming or an incomplete wave (iv).

The expectation is for a complete advance since at least late November, but probably late July, coming this week. It is my opinion that there is a real chance of some sort of dramatic selling or crash following this complete top because of the low volatility conditions that have persisted for so long. One can draw parallels between this post-March 2009 rally and the 1930 bounce seen here.

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