Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Tuesday 2/22/11 Market Update

The S&P 500 posted a big down day today suggesting wave [v] is complete. In the comments from Friday's update, it was suggested Monday that a top was in given the action of the futures.

It is possible that wave [v] is incomplete. If this is the case, wave iv of (iii) completed today. This option is not that bad considering the choppy decline and problems channeling the action at this point. In my opinion however, a set of downward 1st wave impulses better captures the market action. If correct, look for the market to test 1324-5 tomorrow in another sharp second wave bounce.

There is no wave crossing with the alternate i of (iii) of [v] above yet (primary (i) of [v]), so an incomplete top has not been eliminated from the options, but a 4th wave of this size (overlapping the "3rd of 3rd" wave) and breadth is a bit questionable.

There is no change to the larger view. A complete significant top is the best count at this point.

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