Sunday, April 17, 2011

Friday 4/15/11 Market Update

Following Wednesday's Update the count of a complete upward impulse wave since 3/16 is still the best view. In the shorter and longer time frames hover, there are several options with no clear primary count. The options are listed above. Please recognize that the 'primary' labellings are just one option, not necessarily the highest probability.

The expectation was for an impulse wave lower since 4/8 to complete. There was a continuation lower on Thursday, but it is now not clear whether or not the entire move is an impulse or double zigzag.

An impulse higher since Thursday should now be complete. Due to this and the already large retracement of the decline, there is a bullish bias in the short term. The size of the rally following this week with help to better determine the larger count.

The numerous bullish options are arrived at by inspecting the rally since Summer 2010. A truncated wave [v] above would be unusual, but there is little upside momentum bringing doubt to a 3rd wave ahead. All things considered, my bias in the longer term is somewhat bullish; a new recovery high will probably be reached.

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