Saturday, April 23, 2011

Thursday 4/21/11 Market Update

Due to the sideways action after Thursday's initial high, the count was extended slightly since Wednesday's update to allow for impulse wave v. But little has changed; the view that wave (i) of [iii] of C is underway remains the same.

The market looks poised for more impulsive action higher after (i) of [iii] completes. A more substantial pullback to as much as the March lows is possible, but what would then be a clear zigzag since March to nearly new highs is a bullish move on a larger scale.

From a wave perspective, the rally since summer 2010 confirms the bullish view on a shorter time frame; there is really no way to count a complete impulse or zigzag since 7/1/10 or 8/31/10.

With this blog's focus being on the short term, my view on the primary and larger wave scales has been reserved. Recent action makes for an interesting discussion of very long term wave counts however. With the market poised to move higher and the already major retracement of the 2007-2009 downward impulse wave, in my opinion there is almost no chance an upward primary wave [2] is underway.

I was always doubtful of the primary wave [2] idea because of the lack of symmetry and proportionality in a flat that would have such a large 'c' wave. The 2000-2009 move already looks like a flat.

The focus here is the shorter term and the structure since March 2009 still looks corrective in the way described here. Without questioning the grand supercycle wave [III] that topped in 2000 as shown here, action since March 2009 should be part of supercycle wave (b) or (x) of [IV]. There are clearly many other scales to be considered if [III] did not complete or if the count is wrong in other ways. But whatever the case, some sideways correction appears to be completing since 2000. During this decade testing the 2009 low is still likely and breaking it is still possible.

The labels on this blog's charts is clearly not right since primary wave [2] is not the view, but the structure has not changed in any way. After I consider the larger picture in more detail, the labels will be changed.

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