Thursday, April 28, 2011

Thursday 4/28/11 Market Update

In yesterday's update, it was suggested an incomplete wave (i) of [iii] was underway with v of (i) extending. If an impulse since yesterday's low has completed or is nearing completion, this count is still in play. Extending 5th waves are not that common however, and it is difficult to count an impulse that began yesterday.

Moving labels up slightly, a different extending v of (i) count is possible. It requires the core of v to have been yesterday with [4] and [5] following today. [3] is then shorter and has less breadth than [1], so this is not the best count.

The market is continuing higher in an impulsive fashion. There are many counts that describe a completing impulse wave, such as the one above. Extending 5ths usually come at the end of a well-established uptrend. A 3rd wave underway is still the best view, so an extending 5th is not a high probability, especially when it is already longer than its 3rd wave counterpart.

A series of 1st and 2nd waves higher is the best view, but the count is not clear at this time. The core of [iii] may have occurred Tuesday or may be seen as early as tomorrow.

Following similar rallies since autumn 2010, a grind higher for several more weeks is the expectation. A new all-time high is possible a few months from now.

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