Thursday, July 7, 2011

Thursday 7/7/11 Market Update

The market resumed its uptrend today as expected in yesterday's update, however the continuation higher after today's gap calls for some change to the count.

As illustrated above, an impulse wave since 6/23 seems to be the most likely option. This is the best way of fitting in the large impulse that began yesterday.

The 8:30am EST unemployment report tomorrow should be important in confirming the count. It is not the number that is important, it is the anticipation and reaction to the number that should move the market. It is possible that a good number is already priced into the market.

There is clear momentum loss in the rally that began last month. The overbought technical condition of the market supports a corrective decline beginning soon. Because the rally has been so strong, the correction may not retrace a large amount of 1; perhaps only yesterday's lows will be reached.

Please note that the wave degree of the advance since June is not clear at this stage; the wave degree may be too low.

There are a few different ways of viewing the advance since March 2009, but the most simple and proportional is a single zigzag. The primary view is an impulse rally since July 2010 with complete February-June wave [2] flat. A multi-month rally should be underway.

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