Monday, August 15, 2011

Monday 8/15/11 Market Update

The market rallied today, but prices are still within wave [iv] of 3 of (3) territory and not far above the 38.2% retracement level of (3). The rally since Thursday is also fading with the return of greed in the short term. Finally, within (4), wave [c] is nearly the same length as [a] with alternation of subdivision between those waves. For all these reasons, the idea behind the count in Friday's update remains unchanged.

The market is in rally mode since last week's low, however it remains to be seen whether or not the wave [iv] resistance area can be exceeded. As discussed yesterday, the count will change to an alternate listed above if this occurs.

The trend has clearly changed from up to down. There is good reason to believe a zigzag since March 2009 is complete. Because double zigzags are more rare than single zigzags and the proportionality between the two 5s following the 1370 top suggests an impulse is underway, a test of 666 is the best Elliott forecast in the coming months and year.

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