An alternate count similar to the one presented in yesterday's update became the primary count when the market's strong open did not hold. In other words, wave (iv) of [iii] appears to have been a running flat with wave [v] completing today.
An impulse since 7/22 should now be complete. The May-June decline still looks like 5 waves down considering the wave action at the June lows, so a Feb-June flat is a good count. Following this, a June-July upward flat appears the be the best count also due to the action near the June lows and the 6/23-7/7 clear 5 waves higher. A clear 3 wave pullback followed during 7/7-7/18 with a possible 5 wave rally ensuing as an alternate count. A 5 wave collapse works well as the 'c' wave of a July flat or 'a' wave of a July alternate count zigzag since 7/22 still incomplete.
As warned last week, the large retracement of the last multi-week impulse higher makes it unlikely that a second wave lower has unfolded since July.
The market has been trading sideways since February, about half of a year. The count suggests a base is now complete with future recovery highs likely. Pessimism has been clear and strong the past week which supports the count and the view that there will be a continued bull market since March 2009.
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