Saturday, September 3, 2011

Friday 9/2/11 Market Update

The count in the last update, Wednesday's Update, suggested wave (4) had completed Wednesday. The sharp sell-off Friday is right in line with the count's expectations.

An impulse lower since Wednesday should complete soon. This wave is likely 1 of (5) given its expected termination and size in relation to (1) and (3).

As stated here in earlier updates, a wave (4) double appeared most likely given the wave structure in August. It appears that this is exactly the pattern that unfolded unless a "3rd of a 3rd" wave higher unfolds for a large rally beginning the middle of August. This bullish option is now unlikely given the size of the sell-off this week.

Prices reversed just after touching the above (1)-(3), (2) channel line. There is good proportionality between waves (2) and (4).

The market is in a downtrend since May 2011 and this trend is expected to continue until the 666 March 2009 low is tested. A double zigzag since March 2009, with prices now pulling back following the first zigzag, is still possible, however this option is becoming less probable as prices continue to fall in an impulsive manner.

The very long term expectations can be found here.

blog comments powered by Disqus