Sunday, October 23, 2011

Friday 10/21/11 Market Update

With prices making a new swing high Friday, the short term count has changed slightly since the last update. This count works surprisingly well, maintaining proportionality between waves. Impulse wave [v] should complete tomorrow.

A complete sideways correction is possible, but with higher highs and higher lows the past several weeks and a shallow consolidation period, an incomplete sideways correction is a better alternate. But the Thursday-Friday rally looks impulsive which suggests a sideways correction is not unfolding.

An impulse is the most simple way to describe the rally since early October regardless of its context. The most simple option is usually what unfolds. If price is not able to break under 1190 soon, a more substantial rally still underway is possible with no modification of the short term count needed.

If an impulse lower did complete beginning May 2011, the daily chart above also seems to suggest an impulse (wave 'a') is underway and nearly complete but with additional upside to come.

In my opinion the technical indicators suggest an overbought market, but this does not rule out the option of only a future correction lower in a larger uptrend to eliminate the condition.

Considering an array of options, the longer term count above is still the primary view.

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