Saturday, October 1, 2011

Friday 9/30/11 Market Update

The view expressed in yesterday's update and earlier this week remains intact; the most probable outcome from an Elliott wave perspective appears to clearly be a completing wave (5) impulse lower as described above.

I am always cynical when it comes to Elliott wave counts however. Given some oversold technical indicators (e.g. the TRIN), there is an especially good reason to doubt the count above. The best alternate is a wave (4) flat underway but it is difficult to take this count overly seriously given the proportionality issues between (4) and wave (2) and wave (4)'s enormous complexity.

There is still a choppy decline unfolding since the last swing high. The expectation is for an acceleration to the downside Monday for the core of (5).

The August and September lows should be broken as an impulse that began May 2011 continues. Perhaps it will terminate soon at Summer 2010 support.

There is a clear 3-wave pattern higher that began March 2009. Considering options in the longer term view here, there is a good chance the entire advance will be retraced.

I will be overseas in Austria for 3 weeks on business beginning 10/9 (Sunday). I will do my best to provide updates with charts, but I do not know what the Internet situation will be at the hotel.

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