Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Tuesday 11/22/11 Market Update

There is again no change to the count since yesterday's update. An impulse wave lower within a larger downtrend should be underway since the October high. It appears to be winding down but should continue for weeks more.

Wave (iv) of [iii] of 3 above may be complete, but it best resembles an incomplete triangle with d underway.

The bearish count on this scale continues to look better as prices continue lower. This is due to the retracement percentage of the October rally and increased difficulty in finding a well-proportioned, corrective wave count to extend the October rally into a double zigzag still underway. Keep in mind that the top of A of (Y) should have marked the end of a single zigzag rally in October if a larger uptrend is still underway. An impulsive count in October is a very poor option as discussed here many times.

The longer term waves since March 2009 and May 2011 make a test of the March 2009 low probable.

The next update will be Sunday. There is no trading Thursday and Friday is a shortened day.

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