Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Wednesday 12/14/11 Market Update

The count has not changed since yesterday's update. An impulse lower since yesterday's high (wave (c) of [y] of B) may be complete today (the expectation stated in yesterday's update). Wave iv may just as easily be incomplete as a flat or triangle however. In any case, there should be a bottom tomorrow unless the market is drawing out an impulse lower that began earlier this month.

The subdivision and size of (c) of [y] and its distance now below the last swing low on Monday suggest the core or "3rd of a 3rd" wave of an impulse that began at the high this month has been underway. In the form seen, the series of zigzag waves to new highs near the top of the November to December rally strongly suggest a corrective wave down is still underway however. The strong retracement of the 3-wave rally following the October high also clearly suggests the October high will be tested following.

Given that the October rally is a fairly clear 3-wave pattern, and considering all the action following, a double zigzag to test the area around the last recovery high is expected. Given the 3-wave advance since March 2009, a double zigzag underway since that time is the best way to describe the action. A new all-time high is possible next year which does not conflict with the longer term view stated here previously.

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